Professor Jun Qian is Invited to Attend Anhui Fudan Alumni Association Anniversary Celebration Special Lecture, Focusing on Economic Recovery in “Post-epidemic Era” and China’s Economic and Trade Environment

Release time：2022-05-28    

Our Alma Mater is so lofty with brilliant thoughts shining from the Guanghua Tower! On the afternoon of May 22nd, in order to celebrate the 117th anniversary of our Alma Mater, Professor Jun Qian, Executive Dean of FISF and Professor in Finance, accepted the invitation of Anhui Fudan Alumni Association and started a special online lecture on “Chinese Finance in 2022: Conquer the Gray Rhino Avoid the Black Swan，and to be Dynamic as a Tiger”, making an in-depth analysis for the alumni of Anhui Alumni Association on the economic recovery in the “post-epidemic era” and China’s economic and trade environment.

At the beginning of the lecture, Professor Jun Qian gave a detailed explanation of the meanings represented by the three animals in the topic. The “gray rhino” refers to the risks already existing in the financial system, which may often bring about grave consequences if not controlled and allowed to break out. At the current stage, one of the most “gray rhinos” in China’s financial system is still the debt issue of non-financial enterprises (including the real estate industry) and some local governments. The “black swan” indicates the risks not thought of in advance or not accurately estimated though thought of in advance. What we can do is just to avoid the “black swan” as much as possible, or limit the negative impact to a minimum. In this traditional year of the tiger, the Chinese economy has encountered many risks accumulated altogether, but it can be seen that the economy in the second half of the year will perform obviously better, and there will appear more investment opportunities in the capital market. Therefore, investors are reminded not to miss such investment opportunities to grow “as dynamic as the tiger”.

Professor Jun Qian pointed out that when investing in the market, one must see clearly the macro trend. In the present macro environment, there are three major risks worth noticing, namely two non-economic risks, the public health and geopolitical crisis, and one economic risk, the release of inflationary pressure. In his detailed analysis, Qian said with this round of the COVID-19 epidemic risk in Shanghai coming to an end, economic recovery shall be conducted in order, and thus before investing in a specific sector, the recovery condition of the sector and the overall supply chain of the industry must be taken into consideration. From the perspective of geopolitical crisis, though the bilateral trade between Russia and China only accounts for less than 3% in the total volume of trade of China, “the largest trading power around the world”, Russia as one of the major countries of origin of oil and gas for China is still quite influential in affecting China’s energy security. In the aspect of the global macroeconomy, affected by the "exit" of the ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies of the US and other input-oriented factors, inflation in the US has reached its peak in the past 40 years. To fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates twice since March, having a huge effect on the American capital market, and also largely increased the possibility of economic recession to be incurred during the period from the end of this year to the first half of next year.

When it comes to how to revitalize the domestic economy after the epidemic, Professor Jun Qian proposed that a combination of “issuance of short-term consumer coupons” and “support for small- and micro-sized enterprises to stabilize resident income” should be adopted to stimulate resident consumption. Undoubtedly, the people-benefiting consumer coupons can stimulate consumption to some extent, but that is only valid for specific groups. From the economic perspective, only after the largest group of consumers resume consumption can the overall economy recover. Stable consumption depends on stable income. Apart from issuing consumer coupons, it is more necessary to make adjustments to the income issue that residents pay attention to the most. In China, 60% to 80% of employment opportunities are provided by small- and micro-sized enterprises. Accordingly, the mid- and long-term stability of small- and micro-sized enterprises can play a huge role in determining the mid- and long-term stability of resident income, and further stimulate consumption.

In the interactive Q&A stage, Professor Jun Qian carried out in-depth discussions with Anhui alumni on issues of the investment prosperity of the semiconductor industry, the return of Chinese concept shares and the development of Hong Kong stocks, as well as the current situation and opportunities for digital currencies. At the end of the lecture, Professor Jun Qian expressed his wonderful blessings to Anhui Alumni and expected to gather with them at Fudan and talk about the future after the epidemic.