Professor Jun Qian Visits CGTN Exclusive Interview Dialogue Providing In-depth Analysis and Interpretation on the Sino-US Economic Situation | Info

Release time：2025-06-20    

Jun Qian, Executive Dean of FISF and Professor in Finance, visited the Dialogue column of China Global Television Network (CGTN) to make an in-depth analysis and interpretation on the current Sino-US economic situation.

Professor Introduction

Jun Qian

Executive Dean of FISF

Professor in Finance

What changes has been revealed in the latest trade data released by General Administration of Customs? Is foreign trade playing a weaker part in driving the Chinese economy? On the evening of June 9^th 2025, Jun Qian, Executive Dean of FISF and Professor in Finance visited the Dialogue column of CGTN to make an in-depth analysis and interpretation on the current Sino-US economic situation, and a comprehensive summary of the recent hot spots both at home and abroad.

Distinguished guests also participating in the Dialogue column included Qinduo Xu, News Analyst of China Media Group, Anthony Chan, Former Chief Economist of J.P. Morgan Chase, and Radhika Desai, Visiting Professor of Department for International Development, London School of Economics and Political Science.

The latest statistical result released by General Administration of Customs on June 9^th showed that: in the first 5 months of 2025, the total import and export value of goods trade in China was RMB 17.94 trillion yuan, making a year-on-year (same below) increase of 2.5%. Of all China’s trade relations, the ASEAN was the largest trading partner, with which the total trade value was 3.02 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.1% and accounting for 16.8% of China’s total foreign trade; the EU was the second largest trading partner; and the US was the third, with which the total trade value was 1.72 trillion yuan, decreasing by 8.1% and accounting for 9.6%. Of the total trade value, the export to the US was 1.27 trillion yuan, decreasing by 8.7%; and the import from the US was 447.51 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.3%.

In this regard, Professor Jun Qian pointed out that according to the changes in the first 5 months, while China was reducing exports to the US, the ASEAN and EU markets had filled the gap to some extent. Over a longer period, China’s sustainable high-quality economic development would further lessen its dependence on foreign trade growth, but relied more on domestic demands as well as motives from technological innovation and the financial market.

Then how to stimulate the potential of the domestic consumer market? Professor Jun Qian came up with three prerequisites to boost consumption: firstly, stabilizing the housing market, preventing the “negative wealth effect” caused by the decline in housing prices for urban households, which would affect their consumption capacity; continue to support small and medium-sized enterprises that could operate normally and provide employment opportunities, and guarantee the employment and income of consumer groups (with no real estate); and advance the construction of the social security system, reducing residents’ saving rate arising from “excessive caution” and lifting their consumption intention.

When it came to Chinese technology enterprises, especially large enterprises listed in Hong Kong like Tencent, Xiaomi and BYD, Professor Jun Qian stated that these enterprises, with stable fundamentals and huge growth space, displayed a far lower valuation than those in the US. Therefore, he suggested that foreign capital markets and international capital should pay more attention to the performance of Chinese tech enterprises.

Otherwise, as for the recent riot in California caused by the arrest of illegal immigrants, Qian analyzed that illegal immigrant workers, mostly engaged in low-paying essential jobs with low-employment tendencies among Americans, panicked due to the existing immigration policy, leading to a reduction in labor supply and an increase in labor costs, which, combined with the recent tariff policies, would further exacerbate the inflation problems in the US.