活动内容
Topic
China's
Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Growth
Speaker
Jianjun Miao
Professor
of Economics, Boston University
Abstract
China's
housing prices have been growing rapidly over the past few decades, despite low
growth in rents. We study the impact of housing bubbles on China's economy,
based on the understanding that local governments use land-sale revenue to fuel
infrastructure investment. We calibrate our model to the Chinese data over the
period 2003-2013 and that our calibrated model can match the declining capital
return and GDP growth, the average housing price growth, and the rising infrastructure
to GDP ratio in the data. We conduct two counterfactual experiments to estimate
the impact of a bubble collapse and a property tax.
